PSA has released its 2025 Fraud Report, a 32-page analysis detailing counterfeit and altered trading card trends. PSA estimates it intercepted fraudulent collectibles with a projected market value of more than $200 million in 2025.
While TCG cards now make up the majority of PSA’s submission volume—with the company examining 19.2 million total cards of which 7.7 million were sports cards, per Gem Rate data—sports cards still accounted for 43.1% of all counterfeit submissions. Modern cards (1990–present) comprised 70.1% of counterfeits versus 29.9% vintage.
Counterfeit submissions overall rose 45.3% year-over-year. Sports card counterfeits increased 5.1%, while Pokémon counterfeits jumped 125%. PSA says the counterfeit rate as a share of total submissions surged 250%, indicating fraud attempts are expanding.
Most Counterfeited Sports Cards and Players
The highest counterfeit rates were recorded on several vintage icons. Not surprisingly, 12 of the 13 T206 Honus Wagner cards submitted to PSA last year were fakes, three other popular cards saw a fairly high counterfeit rate:
- 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle #311: 61.9% (112 of 181 submitted counterfeit)
- 1984 Star Michael Jordan #101 (XRC): 26.7%
- 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 (rookie card): 25.0%
By volume, the 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card was the single most counterfeited card submitted to PSA in 2025. It led the top 10 overall, ahead of multiple high-volume Pokémon issues. Other sports cards cracking the top 10 by volume included the 2000 SkyBox Impact Tom Brady #27 and the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. The 1989 Fleer Bill Ripken #616 “FF Error” also appeared.
Forged autographs followed a parallel pattern. The most frequently forged signatures by volume were Mantle, Jordan, Joe DiMaggio, Kobe Bryant, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Ohtani, Donald Trump, Willie Mays, and Muhammad Ali. PSA noted the added complexity of Babe Ruth signatures due to multiple legitimate variations and instances where his nurse signed mail-order items late in his life.
Why Certain Cards Are Targeted
Counterfeiters have shifted from exclusively pursuing ultra-high-value grails to targeting modern cards that offer a balance of recognizable name, strong resale value, and simpler printing technology. Two of the most counterfeited Tom Brady cards in 2025 were the 2000 SkyBox Impact #27 (raw value $80–$120, PSA 10 value $1,377) and 2000 Pacific Crown Royale Rookie Royalty #2 (raw value $70–$95, PSA 10 value $1,726).
Iconic rookies with complex foiling or autographs are significantly harder to replicate.
Matt Hendler, Head of Grading Brand Protection, explained the strategy: “Counterfeiters often take the same approach as someone printing fake currency: they target the $10 or $20 bill instead of the $100, believing it’s more likely to slip through unnoticed. We’re seeing that tactic more frequently in trading cards. But at PSA, value doesn’t determine scrutiny. Every card – whether it’s $10 or $10,000 – is examined with extreme rigor.”
How PSA Identifies Counterfeits
Counterfeits frequently originate from scans rather than original print files, resulting in blurry print clarity under magnification.
Graders check for font discrepancies, incorrect foil patterns and reflectivity, differences in paper stock and layering, ink density, microscopic pattern alignment, edge analysis, surface fluorescence, print registration, and tactile surface feel. Veteran graders can sometimes distinguish cardboard eras by touch or even scent.
What PSA Is Doing to Stop Counterfeits
PSA says it invested more than 80,000 hours in specialized training across its grading organization in 2025. All graders complete months of structured PSA Grader University training followed by more than 13,000 supervised card evaluations before grading independently. Every card undergoes multiple expert reviews.
The company maintains a reference library of more than 270 million card images, including authentic, counterfeit, and altered material. Proprietary AI analyzes each submission against this dataset to flag anomalies. Findings are documented with high-quality images, added to an internal database for pattern tracking, shared across global grading teams, and incorporated into ongoing training. Submitted counterfeit items are returned to the submitter; PSA does not confiscate them but encourages collectors to contact the original seller or marketplace.
To validate its systems under real conditions, PSA regularly introduces known counterfeits from its internal library into the workflow as blind tests. Grading teams are unaware when they are reviewing test samples.
Brendan Bigelow, Authentication & Grader Learning Manager, described the approach: “Education across the Grading team is a continuous process of learning, adapting, and refining. By regularly introducing real-world counterfeits into our workflows, we ensure our team is constantly sharpening its skills against the evolving tactics used by bad actors in the hobby.”
How Collectors Can Protect Themselves
PSA recommends verifying certification numbers on the PSA app, using eBay’s Authenticity Guarantee for eligible items $250+ when buying on that platform, closely examining print quality, fonts, foil patterns, and cardstock against known authentic examples, buying from reputable sources, and questioning deals far below market value.
