I tried something last year before the baseball season started.
I made a list of players I was going to collect, or focus on in the hobby. Then, I decided to go a little deeper and I turned it into two lists – pitchers and position players.
I grew up in an era where starting pitchers played a different role on their teams. Starters also meant more to the fans and the collectors. I grew up opening 10 cent packs and pulling cards of Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Mark Fidrych, Steve Rogers, Don Gullett, Vida Blue, Catfish Hunter, Sparky Lyle, Fergie Jenkins, Luis Tiant, Bert Blyleven, Jim Palmer, Ron Guidry, Rollie Fingers… I think you get the idea.
These guys pitched every four days, not five, and they went deep into games. There were no pitch counts, and the starters were the most important players in the game.
I pitched as a kid, and like every other 12-year-old kid in 1976, I talked to the ball, got on my hands and knees to groom the mound, and did everything I saw Mark Fidrych do on TV.
So last year, I thought it would be great to make a list of pitchers I was going to collect. I didn’t put Tommy John on that first list, but he certainly played a role on last year’s list.
My list started with Jacob deGrom, who I figured would lead the Rangers to the World Series and win the Cy Young Award. He got hurt.
Max Scherzer was next, followed by Justin Verlander. They got hurt. Tyler Glasnow got hurt. Tristan McKenzie was awesome when I watched him pitch and I put him on my list. He got long-term DL’d. Carlos Rodon was on my list. He was going to take the Yankees deep into the playoffs.
Chris Sale was certainly going to be healthy for the Red Sox and would be collectible. Not so much.
And the most famous pitcher shut down of all was Shohei Ohtani, who is going to be a DH only after he had an elbow injury that required another surgery last fall.
Needless to say, this year’s list of starting pitchers to keep an eye on in the hobby is much different.
Creating a list of 25 wasn’t hard, but cutting it down to 10 was. Here is what I came up with as my list of 10 starting putchers to watch in the hobby this year.
10b – Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Okay, I said it was a list of 10 and Yamamoto is the 11th player, but that is only because his Major League Baseball rookie cards have not been produced yet. He, more than anyone, is the rookie to watch in the hobby this year. He comes over from Japan to the Dodgers after signing a $325 million deal.
He is the hobby’s most anticipated pitcher – we are excluding Ohtani because he is a hitter – to come into the Major Leagues since Stephen Strasburg. He’s lower on this list because, well, there just isn’t much to collect at the moment.
If he gets off to a quick start and establishes himself as a Tier I starter, Topps Chrome Series 2 may be the hottest product in years. He does have some Topps Now cards, and his first Japanese cards appeared in 2017.
10. George Kirby
Kirby started appearing in Bowman, Leaf and Panini draft and prospect sets in 2019, and finally got official rookie card in 2022.
The 26-year-old Seattle Mariners righty is considered a throwback. He will go deep into a start and is less restricted by the parameters of a pitch count. He has two- and four-seam fastballs, along with a slider, splitter, curve and a change-up. Kelly is considered by many to be the best control pitcher in the game and averaged less than one walk per nine innings last year.
In December, a 2019 PSA 10 Bowman Chrome Draft Red Wave Refractor #5/5 autograph sold for $1,800. However, there are ungraded Kirby rookie cards RCs available for a buck or two.
9. Marcus Stroman
A decade ago, there was a lot of hype around Marcus Stroman when he was a young star with the Toronto Blue Jays. At 5’7”, he is not a prototypical pitcher, but he is athletic and has an arsenal of filthy breaking pitches.
With the Cubs last year, he was named to the All-Star Game – he did not participate as he needed to rest – and then was shut down with hip inflammation. After Blake Snell turned down a contract with the Yankees, they turned to Stroman. As a native New Yorker who grew up a Yankees fan, Stroman was thrilled to join the Yankees. He says he is healthy and he is ready to compete.
“I do think the best is still in me,” said Stroman during his media availability after signing. “I battled a few injuries at the end of last year, but in the beginning of last year I was one of the best pitchers in baseball. When I’m healthy, I’ll put myself up there with one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Stroman’s first cards are in the 2011 Topps and Bowman-branded USA Baseball sets. His rookie cards, which appeared in 2014 sets, remain cheap. In December, an ungraded 2014 Topps Finest Rookie Red Refractor #/25 sold for just $30 on eBay. The same month, a 2014 Topps Chrome Rookie auto PSA 9 went for $29.99 in a fixed price sale.
8. Logan Webb
In the 2022 season, we ran a piece about how Logan Webb was perhaps the best buy among starting pitchers, as many of his RCs could be had for a dollar.
Now, the cat’s out of the bag on that one, but early cards of the Giants’ ace are still extremely inexpensive. A PSA 10 2019 Bowman Chrome Yellow Refractor #/75 sold for $375 in late January. Ungraded rookie cards can be found for under $2.
Webb was the runner up to Blake Snell in last year’s NL Cy Young Award voting. In 2023, he led the Majors in innings pitched (216.0) and had two complete games.
Perhaps the most interesting fact about Webb is that he is legally blind because of astigmatism, a condition that causes blurred vision that was diagnosed when he was nine years old.
7. Zack Wheeler
Considered one of the best free agent signings in Philadelphia Phillies history, Wheeler was the runner up for the 2021 NL Cy Young Award and has been outstanding in the playoffs. He has a career 2.42 postseason ERA, which is sixth best in MLB history among pitchers with 10 or more starts.
Wheeler hit the hobby radar in 2009 when he appeared in Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects after being selected sixth overall by the San Francisco Giants. In 2011, they traded him to the New York Mets for Carlos Beltran. Wheeler made his Major League debut in 2013 and his rookie cards appear in the 2013 Bowman and Topps products.
Wheeler had two solid seasons but missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to an elbow injury and Tommy John surgery. Hew came back and improved over the next three seasons. After the 2019 season, Wheeler signed a five-year deal with the Phillies.
The average selling price for a Wheeler card over the last year is just $11. Most of his rookie autographs and low serial numbered cards can still be had for less than you’d think. At age 33, he’s not likely to put up stellar career numbers but a big game reputation is something he already owns.
6. Tarik Skubal
I got the chance to see the Detroit Tigers play at Fenway Park last year, and it was the first time I had seen Skubal pitch. I’ve been to a couple hundred MLB games in the past, and Skubal’s performance was one that stands out as memorable. I have never seen such a range of speeds than what Skubal was dealing. The 27-year-old is a bit of a late bloomer, with a fastball that can touch 100 mph, a curveball that averages 76 mph, a slider that averages 88 mph, and a change in the low 80s.
In September, Skubal was one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors. He pitched 30 innings and gave up just three earned runs and four walks while striking out 43. If he can remain healthy, Skubal has the ability to be a breakout star with an improving Tigers team and that might make him worth scooping up at current prices.
5. Corbin Burnes
A couple years ago, this signing was unimaginable.
But now, the Baltimore Orioles are an exciting young team with young star power with players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. They also moved the fences back at Camden Yards a couple years ago. So going to a young, up-and-coming team that unexpectedly won the AL East when they were not even in the conversation at the beginning of the season, and playing home games in one of the MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks made Baltimore very lucrative for the former Milwaukee Brewers ace.
Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award, led the NL in strikeouts in 2022, and was an All-Star for the last three seasons (2021-23). He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season and should command a huge payday.
Burnes should be around for years to come. He made his Major League debut in 2018 and his rookie cards appear in the 2019 Bowman and Topps products. His first draft pick and prospect cards were in the 2016 Bowman and Panini products.
4. Kodai Senga
It was hard to consider Senga a rookie last year, since he was a 30-year-old veteran of the Japanese League.
He signed with the Mets and led the team in strikeouts and innings pitched. He finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Senga in the hobby is interesting. With the growth in the hobby in Japan because of Shohei Ohtani, the number of Japanese collectors in the market has driven up the value of Senga cards. After the 2023 season, a Senga Topps Chrome Red Rookie Auto #/5 PSA 10 sold for $2,000 in an eBay fixed price sale. In December, an ungraded 2023 Topps Chrome Saphire 1/1 Senga rookie card sold for $1,459 at auction.
Senga’s ghost forkball was almost unhittable, and the Mets new ace told reporters last week that he is working on a new pitch.
Stay tuned!
3. Pablo Lopez
It seems that every baseball analyst out there is saying that the breakthrough pitcher of the year is going to be Pablo Lopez of the Minnesota Twins.
For many fans, Lopez hit the radar in 2021 when set a Major League record by striking out the first nine batters of the game, fanning Ehire Adrianza, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Orlando Arcia, Dansby Swanson, Guillermo Heredia, Kevan Smith, and Ian Anderson on 35 pitches.
Lopez has a fastball in the mid-90s and throws a four-seamer and a sinker. He also has a change in the mid-80s and a curve in the low 80s.
A native of Venezuela and the son of two doctors, Lopez graduated high school at 16 and is fluent in Spanish, English, Italian and Portuguese. He was accepted into medical school, but to the dismay of his parents he accepted a contract form the Seattle Mariners. He was traded to Miami in 2017 and made his MLB debut in 2018.
Lopez appears in Grandstand Minor League team sets from 2016-18 and in Donruss, Panini and Topps sets in 2019. The most bizarre hobby fact for Lopez is that he has never had a Bowman card.
Most of his cards remain inexpensive. Over the last three years, all but a few have sold for under $200. His ungraded Topps RC’s can usually be found for under $1.
2. Spencer Strider
Eventually, he will lock down the number one spot on this list if we make it an annual thing. He is the premier strikeout pitcher in baseball with a 36.8 per cent strikeout rate, more than five points better than the next best strikeout pitcher.
Strider has only played two full seasons in the majors, and he is one of only four pitchers in modern Braves history to have multiple 200-strikeout seasons. This is only the second year in his pro career that he comes into training camp as a starter in the five-man rotation. The Braves should again be a contender and Strider is on the verge of being a true superstar.
Collectors have been pouncing on his cards for a while now–quite a few have sold for four-figure prices.
1. Gerrit Cole
Last year, Cole finally won his elusive first Cy Young Award. The New York Yankees ace went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 222 strikeouts in 2023. He held batters to a .206 average and limited the opposition to three runs or fewer in 28 of 33 starts.
I mentioned earlier in the article that I got to see Tarik Skubal pitch live. I also got to see Gerrit Cole pitch at Yankee stadium this year. He was filthy.
In the last 51 years, the only other Yankee starters with lower qualified ERAs are Ron Guidry, Rudy May and Catfish Hunter.
The Yankees were a disappointment last year, but with the addition of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge at full health, and Giancarlo Stanton reporting to camp lighter and in better shape, the Yankees will be a high-profile contender. Cole will be their ace on the mound.
Cole appeared I the 2009 Upper Deck USA Signature Stars series as a member of the national U18 team. His rookie cards are in 2013 Bowman and Topps products.
In late January, a 2012 Bowman Chrome Prospects Purple #/10 Refractor autograph with a 9.5 BGS rating sold for $4100.
Honorable Mention
The first name you will not see on this list is Blake Snell. He is a defending Cy Young winner but he was still without a team as I wrote this article. Also, his track record of not going deep into games is a factor as well. I am a huge fan of Blake Snell, but I wish he would go deeper than five or six innings. Other names considered who are worth keeping an eye on are Bobby Miller, Max Fried, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Glasnow, Michael King, Cole Rogers, Zac Gallen, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola, Freddy Peralta and Hunter Greene.
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