For a moment last week, the hobby held its breath as yet another serious injury to one of the sports card market’s premier investible and collectible players raised long term question marks.
But while a torn elbow ligament suffered by Shohei Ohtani might mothball his pitching career for a year or maybe even two, don’t expect much negative impact on Ohtani’s popularity or card values.
Ohtani left the mound after pitching just 1 1/3 innings in the first game of a doubleheader against the Cincinnati Reds on August 23. He insisted in playing in the second game as a designated hitter, and got a hit in five at bats. Against the New York Mets at Citi Field Friday, he had a double and a triple. The next day, he hit a foul ball so hard that it broke a piece of one of the stadium’s scoreboards. His double laser beamed into the wall at 115 mph.
According to Los Angeles Times reporter Dylan Hernandez, Ohtani’s popularity will not be affected at all if Ohtani is in the lineup every day. Speaking on MLB Network Radio Saturday afternoon, Hernandez said that his value on the free agent market and the number of teams interested in him may be impacted, but Ohtani’s popularity will not be affected at all if he continues to play as a DH.
“The injury will probably cost him $100 million,” Hermandez said. “But Ohtani is not motivated by money.”
Speculation was that the price tag to sign Ohtani would be $500 million in free agency. Teams were getting not only one of the premier offensive players in the game, but they were getting one of the top 10 starting pitchers. Experts speculated that he would be baseball’s first half-billion dollar star.
There is a strong possibility that he will undergo a second Tommy John surgery at the end of the season and won’t pitch in 2024. Without him playing both ways, Ohtani’s value will lower into the $250-400 million range. It will also make a lot of teams look at him as an offensive player only, as teams do not want to take the risk of having him on the mound and potentially injuring himself.
Collectors have still been buying his baseball cards. In the five days following his injury, over 13,000 Ohtani cards worth nearly $600,000 were sold on eBay alone. Three of them went for between $10,000 and $15,200.
Angels Remain An Option
Hernandez, who is part Japanese and has followed Ohtani’s career closely, said that what made the Angels an appealing option for him when he came to the Major Leagues was that they committed to give him every opportunity to be a two-way star. He said that the injury will suddenly make the Angels a front runner for Ohtani when his contract runs out at the end of the season.
Offensively, Ohtani is leading all of baseball in home runs. He has a league-leading OPS of 1.075 – Mookie Betts is the only other player with an OPS above 1.000 at 1,018 – and his batting average ranks among the top ten in baseball. The most remarkable stat Ohtani has is that he has been intentionally walked 18 times this season. He has more intentional walks than every team in the Majors except for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians.
Ohtani has been able to put up MVP numbers offensively while being in the Cy Young Award conversation at the same time. It has been exhausting for him physically to do that. Babe Ruth was never known for taking care of his body, so it’s doubtful that Ruth could do what Ohtani has done in the past three seasons.
Most Popular Player In The World
In the card market, the fact that Ohtani is playing every day will keep him relevant. He is producing MVP-like numbers, which is keeping him among the hobby elite of players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Mike Trout and the game’s other top stars. Even if Ohtani never pitches again, don’t forget that none of the other hobby hot list players have ever pitched and are popular based solely on their offensive numbers and popularity.
What sets Ohtani apart, however, is that he is the most popular baseball player on the planet. Hernandez said that he is the most popular person in Japan. His popularity has surpassed that of even Ichiro. He also backboned the Japanese team to victory in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, hitting .435/.606/.739 while posting a 1.86 ERA as a pitcher, striking out 11 in 9.2 innings. The World Baseball Classic, to the Japanese, is more important than the World Series. Japan’s win sparked a national celebration, which was even bigger because the win came against the United States.
Because of the growth of baseball cards in Japan and with Ohtani’s popularity in both Japan and the United States, Ohtani’s rookie cards will always be sought after, injury or not. Because the market is auction driven, particularly for high-end cards, the demand will always be there.
When Ohtani does return to pitching, and that is ‘when’ and not ‘if’, it will be interesting to see how he is used. Will he be an every-seven-days starter to get more rest? Will he become a closer? Remember, he was the closer in the World Baseball Classic final.
The other piece of the equation is that Ohtani, who will surely be a DH only for at least a year, could eventually end up in the outfield. Reports out of Japan say that he has shown he can be an elite level outfielder at the Major League level. Being a defensive standout has never really helped anyone in the hobby. If it did matter, collectors would be shelling out major bucks at auctions for Kevin Kiermaier rookie cards. But if he did become an outfielder, it would only solidify Ohtani’s status as a unicorn.
Where Ohtani’s injury will impact the hobby is with other young players. There are prospects and draft picks in the pipeline who are elite pitchers who can also hit. Pittsburgh Pirates number ne draft pick Paul Skenes is already being talked about as a potential two-way star as he was both a star pitcher and a power hitting catcher in college. Ohtani’s injury will certainly make Major League GMs think twice about letting their best prospects be two-way players.
The bottom line is that everything Shohei Ohtani has done, and is still doing despite being hurt, is something we have never seen before. We will probably never see it again. Collectors never stopped collecting Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky and Mickey Mantle. They will never stop collecting Tom Brady. And they will never stop collecting Ohtani.
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